Marketing developer partner Nanigans recently released a study about cost per click growth on Facebook Inc (NASDAQ FB). The firm said it sees global cost per click on the social network as rising 29% in the second quarter compared to 39% in the previous quarter. However, Evercore Partners analysts think the percentage is too high.
In a report dated July 8, 2014, analysts Ken Sena, Conor McDade and Andrew McNellis said they get to $1.82 average advertising revenue per use for the second quarter when applying 29% cost per click growth. That’s compared to Wall Street’s estimate of around $2.04, which assumes that user growth is flat.
The analysts said while the previous number would be a miss based on pricing, it doesn’t take into account growth in click volume. As a result, they said Facebook Inc (NASDAQ FB) would have to have a 12% increase in year over year click volume to meet the average revenue per user expectations set by Nanigans’ benchmark. They say that 125 could be made up of clicks per user, growth in the number of users, or a combination of both of them.
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The Evercore team notes that for the first quarter, Facebook reported 57% growth in ad revenue per user on Nanigans’ projected 39% growth in cost per click. As a result, 18% would have been made up from click volumes, which is more than enough to match this quarter.
They note that last quarter’s 57% growth in average revenue per user included 15% user growth embedded into it. That’s about a 72% average revenue per user growth if keeping users flat with the previous year. The analysts say the 18% difference between Nanigans’ first quarter benchmark and Facebook Inc (NASDAQ FB)’s first quarter result appears to have been solely due to higher clicks per user. In other words, they said Facebook’s volume benefit would have been around 33% if combining new users with new volumes. They say this is very achievable for the second quarter based on the social network’s past trends.
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Facebook Inc (NASDAQ FB) Business News
The Evercore team reiterated their Overweight rating and $75 per share price target on Facebook Inc (NASDAQ FB). They’re projecting $2.55 billion in ad revenues from the second quarter and $2.77 billion in total quarterly revenues when Facebook reports later this month.
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